Wednesday, 2 June 2010

How to play the transfer market

12 simple tips to massively improve your clubs standing in the transfer market:
  1. Don't let a new manager waste money on transfers - Typically new managers want to make their mark on a side, so they clear out the previous manager's purchases at a discount. They then bring in their own men. A new manager is generally allowed to buy big on the pretence that he is shaping the club for the future while in reality he leaves very quickly. He doesn't get a bonus for making a profit, so why should he care?
  2. Don't buy after a major tournament - What a player did last does not equal what he will do next. Everyone has seen how good he is but he is probably happy with his success.
  3. Don't be a sucker for fashionable nationalities - Brazilians and Dutchmen are incredibly overvalued. Buy unfashionable nationalities for less, even though they are probably just as good. It's easier to sell a shit Brazilian than a decent Mexican.
  4. Identify and abandon sight based prejudices - Scouts are obviously more likely to report back on players who stand out. Blondes for example. Gentleman generally prefer blondes, sometimes without realising it. Scouts are also suspicious of short players, or stocky players, or players who are too tall. If you want to get the most out of your talent scouts you need to abandon these prejudices.
  5. Be as eager to sell as you are to buy - If you stop upgrading you are fucked. No room for sentiment. Guess when a player is peaking, like when the stock markets peak, and you will reap the rewards.
  6. Older players are overrated -  Conventional wisdom states that a player peaks in his early 30's. Right? Well that's wrong. Studies by the University of Loughborough shows that a player peaks at 27 years old. Sell at or after that age, before other clubs notice the subtle declines in the player's performances.
  7. Buy players with problems and help them deal with them - Players with gambling problems, or players who drink, are sometimes remarkably underpriced by their clubs. If you can help them, you will reap the benefits.
  8. Help players relocate - A player won't reach his potential unless he has adjusted. If he is being taught the language, his kids have a nice school, he has a nice house, nice car, etc. Hire a relocation consultant. It may cost £15000 for an expensive consultant, but they will be a friend to the player, and will get them what they want. Hardly any teams do this, however those that do tend to be more successful. For example: AC Milan, Lyon, Ajax. Don't trust hand the player all the responsibility. Bad examples of relocation include Drogba to Chelsea and Anelka to Real Madrid. Don't fall into that trap.
  9. Use the wisdom of crowds - Discuss everything as a group. Bounce ideas off of eachother. Self explanatory really.
  10. Buy players in their 20's, not their teens - Very few players are at the top by 20. Brilliant schoolboys tend to disappear. You can only be confident of a player's potential when they are mature. Bigger clubs demand stars, just buy young players because they are good.
  11. Centre forwards are overpriced - And even though they have long careers, keepers are underpriced.
  12. Sell if you are offered more than a player is worth - Players are untransferable, that is until you get an offer which is higher than you expect. No point in clinging on to players when you could buy two replacements with the money you could get from their transfer fee.

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